NBER Announces Recession
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has announced that
December of 2007 has the peak of economic activity. This confirms what
many already felt. I recall talking with my Brother-in-law in just
prior to New Years Eve in December of 2007 about this. I told him that
despite the fact that it had not been announced that we were in a
recession, we were in a recession.
Calculated Risk has been using December 2007 as the beginning of the recession for some time now in his research.
From NBER: Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National
Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November
28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending
dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee
determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S.
economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that
began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across
the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in
production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession
begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the
economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in
an expansion.
...
The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008
met the standard for a recession, as set forth in the second paragraph
of this document. All evidence other than the ambiguous movements of
the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed
that conclusion. Many of these indicators, including monthly data on
the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in
recent months.
So there it is. We have been in recession for one year
now. The only question remaining now is how long will it take for the
contraction to end.
Search the Inland Empire are MLS no registration required!
What is your home is worth? No registration required.